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| 基于MaxEnt的暗褐断眼天牛在我国的适生区分布研究 |
| The distribution of Tetropium fuscum in China based on MaxEnt |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 暗褐断眼天牛 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 适生区 |
| 英文关键词:Tetropium fuscum MaxEnt model climate change suitable area |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 暗褐断眼天牛Tetropium fuscum是林业重大害虫之一，已多次被我国海关截获，入侵风险极高。明确暗褐断眼天牛在我国的适生区范围及主要影响因子，对其早期预警和检疫意义重大。本研究根据现有的448个暗褐断眼天牛分布数据，结合气候数据，利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对暗褐断眼天牛在我国的适生区进行了预测。结果表明：当前气候背景下，暗褐断眼天牛适生面积占全国陆地面积的7.04%，主要分布在我国西北、西南、华东和华南的部分地区。未来不同气候背景下，暗褐断眼天牛在我国适生区变化趋势各不相同。影响暗褐断眼天牛分布的最主要环境变量为最冷季节平均温度、最热季节平均温度、降水量变异系数以及最干燥月份降水量。研究结果可为今后对暗褐断眼天牛的预防与检疫提供理论依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Tetropium fuscum is an important forest pest, causing a potential threat to the ecological security of forests in China. Characterizing the suitable habitat range of T. fuscum in China and the primary influencing factors has considerable significance for its early warning and proposing prevention measures. Based on the existing 448 distribution data of T. fuscum, this study predicts the suitable habitat area in China using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The results indicated that under the current climatic backdrop, the suitable area for T. fuscum accounted for 7.04% of the total land area of China, mainly in regions of northwest, southwest, east, and south China. The trend of the suitable habitat area of T. fuscum in China varies under different future climate scenarios. The most crucial environmental variables that influence T. fuscum distribution were the average temperature of the coldest season and the hottest season, the coefficient of variation of precipitation, and the precipitation in the driest month. These results provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and quarantine of T. fuscum in the future. |
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