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| 利用改进方法预测白蜡窄吉丁在国内的适生区 |
| Prediction of potential geographic distributions of Agrilus planipennis in China based on an improved method |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 白蜡窄吉丁 气候 寄主树种 适生区 最大熵模型（MaxEnt） 地理信息系统（ArcGIS） |
| 英文关键词:Emerald ash borer climate host tree potential distribution range maximum entropy (MaxEnt) Arc geographic information system (ArcGIS) |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（31971666） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 白蜡窄吉丁Agrilus planipennis在我国正由一种本土次要害虫上升为主要害虫，明确其可能的适生范围、指导各地区及早采取防范措施非常必要。本研究考虑气候、寄主树种分布、气候-寄主树种分布综合数据分别构建模型进行白蜡窄吉丁潜在适生区预测和分析，以期建立一种能够更加准确预测钻蛀类害虫潜在分布区的改进方法。除气候条件外，寄主树种的分布是影响白蜡窄吉丁分布的重要因素，应参与蛀干类昆虫适生区的预测。将非生物因素（气候）以及生物因素（寄主树种分布）作为单一变量时得到的预测结果进行叠加，更加符合白蜡窄吉丁分布现状和生存特性。白蜡窄吉丁在我国仍有继续向中部、南部等未发生区传播扩散的风险，限制敏感寄主树种的栽植是有效防范该虫危害的重要手段。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| It is essential to determine the potential geographic distributions of Agrilus planipennis which is gradually becoming a major pest insect in China for its early prevention. Here, climate, host trees’distributions, and their combined variables were used to predict the potential distributions of the pest in China, respectively, to recreate an improved method for suitable area predictions of wood-boring insect pest. As important environmental variables, host trees’ distributions should also be used in prediction of potential distribution ranges of emerald ash borer (EAB), as well as climate factors. The improved method produced more accurate potential distribution ranges by overlapping the predicted ranges of different related biotic (host trees) and abiotic (climate) factors, which perfectly fitted current actual distribution ranges of EAB and its biological characteristics. There was a high risk of EAB to expand its current distribution areas to central and southern China, and the vital method to avoid the risk was to limit the wide-planting of susceptible species of ash trees. |
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