利用改进方法预测白蜡窄吉丁在国内的适生区
Prediction of potential geographic distributions of Agrilus planipennis in China based on an improved method
投稿时间:2021-08-11  修订日期:2021-09-22
DOI:
中文关键词:  白蜡窄吉丁  气候  寄主树种  适生区  最大熵模型(MaxEnt)  地理信息系统(ArcGIS)
英文关键词:Emerald ash borer  climate  host tree  potential distribution range  maximum entropy (MaxEnt)  Arc geographic information system (ArcGIS)
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(寄生蜂自然分布南界的形成机制研究 31971666)
作者单位地址
党英侨 中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所 北京市海淀区青龙桥街道东小府1号中国林业科学研究院
王小艺 中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所 北京市海淀区青龙桥街道东小府1号中国林业科学研究院
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中文摘要:
      白蜡窄吉丁在我国正由一种本土次要害虫上升为主要害虫,明确其可能的适生范围、指导各地区及早采取防范措施非常必要。本研究考虑气候、寄主树种分布、气候-寄主树种分布综合数据分别构建模型进行白蜡窄吉丁潜在适生区预测和分析,以期建立一种能够更加准确预测钻蛀类害虫潜在分布区的改进方法。除气候条件外,寄主树种的分布也是影响白蜡窄吉丁分布的重要因素,也应参与蛀干类昆虫适生区的预测。将非生物因素(气候)以及生物因素(寄主树种分布)作为单一变量时得到的预测结果进行叠加,更加符合白蜡窄吉丁分布现状和生存特性。白蜡窄吉丁在我国仍有继续向中部、南部等未发生区传播扩散的风险,限制敏感寄主树种的栽植是有效防范该虫危害的重要手段。
英文摘要:
      It is essential to determine the potential geographic distributions of emerald ash borer (EAB) which is gradually becoming a major pest insect in China for its early prevention. Here, climate, host trees’ distributions, and their combined variables were used to predict the potential distributions of the pest in China, respectively, to recreate an improved method for suitable area predictions of wood-boring insect pest. As important environmental variables, host trees’ distributions should also be used in prediction of potential distribution ranges of EAB, as well as climate factors. The improved method produces more accurate potential distribution ranges by overlapping the predicted ranges of different related biotic (host trees) and abiotic (climate) factors, which perfectly fits current actual distribution ranges of EAB and its biological characteristics. There is a high risk of EAB to expand its current distribution areas to central and southern China, and the vital method to avoid the risk is to limit the wide-planting of susceptible species of ash trees.
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