《环境昆虫学报》

作者	单位
许莹，王继山，和霞，罗伟雄，王丹彤，王茉	1. 西南林业大学/云南省高校极小种群野生动物保育重点实验室，昆明 650224；2. 国家林业和草原局西南调查规划院/国家林业和草原局亚洲象研究中心，昆明 650031；3. 南京师范大学生命科学学院，南京 210046

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中文摘要:

松树蜂Sirex noctilio Fabricius是危害严重的林木钻蛀性害虫，是国际重大林业检疫性对象。其寄主植物多样，主要对针叶树造成危害，最偏好松属Pinus树种。松树蜂来源于欧洲和北非，在新西兰首次发现后传入澳大利亚，在乌拉圭、巴西、南非、美国等国家均造成一定危害。中国于2013年在黑龙江省首次发现后，已造成黑龙江鹤岗市的樟子松人工林成片死亡。基于松树蜂的286个发生点，结合11个生物气候变量与地形因子（海拔、坡度），以及现今尺度（1970-2000年）与未来尺度（2050年、2070年）时期不同温室气体排放强度两种SSP（SSP126、SSP245）情景下，利用最大熵模型，对松树蜂的潜在适生区进行模拟研究。结果表明：利用刀切法筛选出4种对松树蜂的发育有较强影响的因子，为年平均温度（Bio01）、最暖月份最高气温（Bio05）、最干月份降水量（Bio14）、季节性降水量（Bio15）。松树蜂潜在适生区呈现如下特点：①与以往研究相似，北半球的适生区明显大于南半球，但适生区范围小于之前研究，特别是中国的高适生区仅限于东北和华北地区，这与松树蜂的寄主植物分布区相符；②在两个未来尺度情景下未来适生区的总范围相较于现今尺度适生区显著增加，表明未来尺度适生区范围扩大向着增加松树蜂的潜在扩散范围，自然条件下，未来尺度松树蜂分布范围上升趋势的可能性较大。此外，对松树蜂的生长最重要的因子为年平均温度（Bio01）。鉴于松树蜂已被列入国家相关外来入侵名录进行管控，加之未来松树蜂适生区范围不断扩大，并且受最暖月份最高气温（Bio05）因子影响，应加大检疫力度，对全球变暖导致的温度上升采取一定的防控措施，以降低全球传播风险。

英文摘要:

Sirex noctilio Fabricius is a seriously harmful forest tree drilling moth pest, which is a major international forestry quarantine object. The host plant is varied and primarily detrimental to conifer; Pinus is the most chosen pine. The species originated Europe and North Africa, and after being discovered for the first time in New Zealand, it was brought to Australia. It has since caused minor damage in Uruguay, Brazil, South Africa and the United States. In 2013, Heilongjiang Province in China became the site of its initial discovery. Based on 286 occurrence points of the S.noctilio, combined with 11 bioclimatic variables and terrain factor (Altitude, Slope), as well as present scale (1970-2000) and future scale (2050, 2070) periods under two different SSP scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions intensities (SSP126, SSP245), a simulation study of the potential distribution of the S. noctilio was conducted using the maximum entropy model. The findings showed that the four important climate factors were the annual mean temperature (Bio01), the highest temperature in the warmest (Bio05), the dry month precipitation(Bio14), and the seasonal precipitation (Bio15), which were selected by the Jackknife method. Data for S. noctilio were updated as of 2022. The result indicated that: ①Similar to previous studies, the suitability area in the northern Hemisphere were significantly larger than those in the southern hemisphere, but the range of the suitability area was smaller than previous studies. In particular, the highly habitat suitability area in China were limited to northeast and North China, which was consistent with the host plant distribution of S. noctilio; ②In the two future scale scenarios, the total range of the future scale suitability area increased significantly compared with the present scale suitability area, indicating that the range of the future scale suitability area expanded towards increasing the potential dispersal range of S. noctilio. Under natural conditions, the distribution range of S. noctilio in the future scale is more likely to rise. In addition, the most important factor for the growth of S. noctilio was the annual mean temperature (Bio01). In view of the fact that S. noctilio has been included in the relevant foreign invasion list of the country for control, and the range of suitability area for S. noctilio will continue to expand in the future, and affected by the highest temperature in the warmest (Bio05), quarantine efforts should be strengthened to take certain prevention and control measures against the temperature rise caused by global warming, so as to reduce the risk of global transmission.

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