| 陈 晓，赵远鹏，李 欣，肖 春，李正跃，张立敏,2021,基于广义可加模型分析温湿度因子对斑翅果蝇田间种群动态的影响[J].环境昆虫学报,(4):858-866 |
| 基于广义可加模型分析温湿度因子对斑翅果蝇田间种群动态的影响 |
| Analysis of the effects of temperature and humidity factors on the population dynamics of Drosophila suzukii ( Matsumura ) ( Diptera: Drsophilidae) based on generalized additive model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 斑翅果蝇 环境因子 广义可加模型 种群动态 |
| 英文关键词:Drosophila suzukii environmental factors GAM population dynamics |
| 基金项目:云南农业大学博士科研启动项目 (A2032002502) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 探究温湿度因子对田间斑翅果蝇 Drosophila suzukii Matsumura 种群发生动态的影响，为进一步开展环境胁迫下斑翅果蝇适应性机制研究提供前期基础和参考。本文监测统计了 2016 - 2017 年田间斑翅果蝇成虫种群动态数 据，并利用广义可加模型 ( Generalized Additive Models，GAM) 分析温湿度因子对成虫种群发生动态的影响。结果表明，通过模型检验和广义交叉验证值 ( Generalized Cross-Validation，GCV) 对比，得出温湿度因子显著影响了 2016 - 2017 年斑翅果蝇田间成虫种群发生动态 ( P ＜ 0.05) ，斑翅果蝇雌成虫、雄成虫、总种群数量的 GAM 模型参数 α 分别为 2.21346、2.55606 和 3.08316; 雌成虫、雄成虫、总种群数量与温湿度因子关联的 GCV 值分别为 0.57299、0.74501、0.64611，因此雌成虫种群数量与温湿度因子拟合的模型最优; 结合温湿度预测曲线分析，斑翅果蝇成虫种群发生动态与温湿度因子之间呈非线性相关，其中温度在 23℃以下呈局部负相关，在 23℃以上呈局部正相关; 与湿度呈正相关，但影响程度较低，因此温度是影响斑翅果蝇成虫种群数量动态的关键生态因子。本文通过探究环境因子对田间斑翅果蝇种群消长规律的影响，为斑翅果蝇的种群发生机制提供了生态学理论基础。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To investigate the correlation between temperature-humidity factor and the population dynamics of Drosophila suzukii in the field，thus to provide a preliminary basis and reference for further research on the adaptive mechanisms under environmental stresses. In this study，the monitored field population dynamics' data of D. suzukii from 2016 to 2017 were selected，and the correlation between temperature- humidity factor and the population sizes was analyzed by the generalized additive model ( GAM) ． The model test and generalized cross-validation ( GCV) showed that temperature-humidity factor significantly affected the field population dynamics of D. suzukii from 2016 to 2017 ( P ＜ 0.05) ，with the GAM model parameters α of 2.21346，2.55606 and 3.08316 for the female，male，and total population sizes respectively. Because of GCV scores of female，male，and total population sizes were 0.57299，0.74501 and 0.64611 respectively，D. suzukii female adults populations were best fitted with temperature-humidity factor. Combined with temperature-humidity prediction curve analysis，there was a non-linear correlation between temperature-humidity factor and population sizes，of which there being a local negative correlation below 23℃ and a local positive correlation above 23℃ with temperature factor，and there was a positive correlated with humidity factor，but this impact was lower than that of temperature，which was the key ecological factor affecting the population dynamics of D. suzukii adults. This paper provides a theoretical ecological basis for the occurrence mechanism of D. suzukii through a preliminary investigation with the effects of environmental factors on the population dynamics. |
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