| 王磊，陆永跃,2020,2020年我国草地贪夜蛾蔓延发生趋势及预测[J].环境昆虫学报,(5):1139-1145 |
| 2020年我国草地贪夜蛾蔓延发生趋势及预测 |
| Spreading trend predication of fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda , in year of 2020 in China |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 草地贪夜蛾 扩散迁飞 预测 |
| 英文关键词:Spodoptera frugiperda expansion and migration predication |
| 基金项目:广东省重点领域研发计划项目（2020B020223004）；广东省外来入侵物种风险评估和监测预警共性关键技术研发创新团队建设项目（2019KJ134） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 草地贪夜蛾于2019年1月入侵我国迅速在我国扩散、定殖，并已在云南、广东、海南、福建、广西、四川等中国大陆南方6省（区）周年繁殖。本文根据我国2020年1-7月草地贪夜蛾主要扩散事件参数，建立了侵入省级区域数量、县级区域数量、发生危害面积与扩散时间长度关系模型，分别为Yp=4.7082e^0.00791T、Yc=83.5209e^0.01342T、Ys=2.8059+0.1170(1.0377T)。根据以上模型预测出2020年8月底-9月初幼虫发生危害的省级区域数量超过30个；9月上旬发生危害县级区域数量将达到最大，可能在2 267~2 491个之间；9月上旬-中旬危害作物面积最大，为409.5~515.7多万ha。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda, a dangerous invasive species in the world, was found in January, 2019 in China, and can occur all year round in the six provinces including Yunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, Hainan, and Fujian in southern China. Based on collected data, the models, Yp=4.7082e^0.00791T, Yc=83.5209e^0.01342T, and Ys=2.8059+0.1170(1.0377T), were presented respectively to describe the relationship between number of infected provinces, number of infected counties, area of infected area and expansion duration in year of 2020 in China. According to the above models, it was predicted that more than 30 provincial areas will be damaged by larvae from the end of August to the beginning of September 2020; the number of county-level areas infected will reach the maximum in the first ten days of September, which may be between 2 267 and 2 491; and the area of crops damaged by the larva from the first ten days to the middle of September will be 409.5~5.157 million ha. |
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