《环境昆虫学报》

【目的】明确当前及未来气候变化背景下蚜虫优势捕食性天敌适生区的变化规律。【方法】利用最大熵（Maximum Entropy，MaxEnt）模型模拟两种常见捕食性瓢虫（异色瓢虫 Harmonia axyridis 和龟纹瓢虫 Propylea japonica）及一种捕食性食蚜蝇（大灰优食蚜蝇 Eupeodes corollae）在当前与未来气候条件下的适生区分布及变化趋势。【结果】在未来气候条件下，异色瓢虫与龟纹瓢虫的潜在适生区均呈现向高纬度、高海拔地区迁移的趋势；而大灰优食蚜蝇的适生区范围无显著变化。在两种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSPs）SSP245和SSP585情景下，至2061-2080年间，华南大部分地区将可能不再适宜异色瓢虫和龟纹瓢虫生存。此外，三种天敌昆虫中任意两者之间的共同适生区在未来均趋于缩小。【结论】本研究通过分析两类代表性捕食性天敌昆虫在未来气候情境下的适生区分布，揭示了气候变化对多种天敌协同防控蚜虫类害虫的潜在影响，结果为气候变化背景下科学保护与利用多种捕食性天敌协同防治蚜虫提供了理论依据。

英文摘要:

【Aim】This study aimed to clarify the shifts in suitable habitats of dominant aphid predators under current and future climate change conditions. 【Methods】Using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, we simulated the distribution changes in suitable areas for two common predatory ladybirds (Harmonia axyridis and Propylea japonica) and one predatory hoverfly (Eupeodes corollae) under both current and future climatic scenarios. 【Results】Under future climate conditions, the potentially suitable areas for both H. axyridis and P. japonica showed a trend of shifting towards higher latitudes and altitudes. In contrast, the suitable area for E. corollae showed no significant change. Under the two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP245 and SSP585, most of southern China is projected to become unsuitable for H. axyridis and P. japonica during the period 2061–2080. Furthermore, the overlapping suitable areas between any two of the three predator species are projected to decrease in the future. 【Conclusion】By analyzing the distribution of suitable areas for two representative groups of predatory natural enemies under future climate scenarios, this study reveals the potential impact of climate change on the synergistic control of aphid pests by multiple predator species. The findings provide a theoretical basis for the scientific conservation and utilization of diverse predatory natural enemies for coordinated aphid management under climate change.

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