《环境昆虫学报》

全球气候变化会对植物有害生物的传播产生重要影响。锞纹夜蛾Chrysodeixis chalcites（Esper）是危害最严重的鳞翅目害虫之一，会对多种水果、蔬菜和观赏植物等造成危害。了解锞纹夜蛾在中国的潜在适生区和变化趋势，对其早期管理和检疫防治具有重大意义。本研究利用Biomod2模型筛选出影响锞纹夜蛾分布的关键环境因子，并对其在历史气候场景和4种未来气候场景下的潜在适生区进行预测。通过研究发现，锞纹夜蛾在我国的适生区范围主要集中于我国南方，在未来气候变化的影响下，锞纹夜蛾的潜在适生区变化不明显，具体表现在SSP245气候场景下，潜在适生区面积略微扩大，其余气候场景适生区面积均有一定程度减小。对锞纹夜蛾的监测应重点集中于适生区范围内的地区。影响锞纹夜蛾潜在地理分布关键的环境变量包括BIO2（平均气温日较差）、BIO3（等温性）、BIO4（温度季节性）、BIO5（最暖月的最高温度）、BIO12（年降水量）、BIO14（最干月的降水量）、BIO18（最暖季度的降水量）。旨在通过此研究为锞纹夜蛾在中国范围内的监测与检疫防控提供一定的理论依据。

英文摘要:

Global climate change has a significant impact on the spread of plant pests. Chrysodeixis chalcites (Esper) is one of the most serious lepidopteran pests, causing damage to a wide range of fruits, vegetables, and ornamental plants. Understanding the potential suitable habitats and their changing trends for C. chalcites in China is of great significance for its early management and quarantine control. In this study, we used the Biomod2 model to identify the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. chalcites and to predict its potential suitable habitats under historical and four future climate scenarios. We found that the suitable range of C. chalcites in China is mainly concentrated in the southern part, and under climate change, the potential suitable habitats for C. chalcites do not show significant changes. Specifically, under the SSP245 climate scenario, the potential suitable area slightly expands, while under the other climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitats decreases to varying degrees. Monitoring efforts for C. chalcites should be focused on areas within these suitable habitats. The critical environmental variables affecting the potential geographic distribution of C. chalcites were BIO2, BIO3, BIO4, BIO5, BIO12, BIO14 and BIO15. This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring and quarantine of C. chalcites in China.

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