《环境昆虫学报》

黑腹尼虎天牛Neoclytus acuminatus（Fabricius）是区域性重大林业害虫，易随货物调运传播，近年来我国口岸频繁截获该虫，入侵风险极大。明确当前与未来气候条件下黑腹尼虎天牛在我国适生范围以及影响该虫生存的关键气候因子，对其早期预警具有重要意义。本研究根据现有的1 138个黑腹尼虎天牛分布数据，结合气候数据，利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对黑腹尼虎天牛在我国的适生区进行预测。结果表明：当前气候条件下黑腹尼虎天牛在我国适生区分布广泛，主要集中在华北、华中、华东以及华南地区。SSP1-2.6情境下，黑腹尼虎天牛在我国潜在适生面积有不同程度缩小；SSP2-4.5情境下，黑腹尼虎天牛在我国适生面积增大；SSP3-7.0情景下，黑腹尼虎天牛在我国适生面积无明显变化；在SSP5-8.5情境下，黑腹尼虎天牛在我国适生区面积有明显收缩。最干燥月份降水量和最热月份最高温是影响黑腹尼虎天牛潜在适生分布的关键因素。研究结果为黑腹尼虎天牛风险分析及预警体系的构建提供了理论依据。

英文摘要:

Neoclytus acuminatus (Fabricius) is a regionally important forestry pest that can easily spread via cargo transportation. In recent years, this insect has been frequently intercepted at ports of China, indicating substantial invasion risks. Determining its potential distribution in China under current and future climatic conditions, along with identifying key climatic factors affecting its survival, holds crucial significance for early warning strategies. In this study, 1 138 existing distribution records of N. acuminatus and environmental variables were collected to predict its suitable habitats in China by using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. Results showed that under current climatic conditions, N. acuminatus has extensive suitable areas in China, primarily concentrated in North, Central, East, and South China. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the potential suitable area shows a moderate contraction; under SSP2-4.5 scenario, the suitable area expands; under SSP3-7.0 scenario, it shows no significant changes; under SSP5-8.5 scenario, it shows a substantial contraction. Precipitation of the driest month and maximum temperature of the warmest month predominantly govern its potential distribution. These findings provide a theoretical basis for risk assessment and early warning strategies against N. acuminatus.

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