| 贺 娜，张知晓，户连荣，马惠芬，卢 兰，刘 凌，季 梅,,气候变化下新入侵种——西部喙缘蝽在中国的潜在分布区预测[J].环境昆虫学报,(): |
| 气候变化下新入侵种——西部喙缘蝽在中国的潜在分布区预测 |
| Prediction of the potential distribution areas of Leptoglossus occidentalis —a newly invasive species to China under climate change |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 西部喙缘蝽 气候变化 最大熵模型 环境变量 潜在分布区 |
| 英文关键词:Leptoglossus occidentalis climate change MaxEnt environmental potential distribution |
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| 摘要点击次数: 9 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 西部喙缘蝽Leptoglossus occidentalis Heidemann是一种为害针叶树的全球性害虫。中国于2021年首次在威海和青岛发现该成虫，是一种新的入侵物种。为明确西部喙缘蝽在中国的潜在分布情况，揭示未来气候变化下西部喙缘蝽的分布动态，本研究以其在全球的824个有效分布记录和筛选出的12个环境变量为基础，用最大熵模型和地理信息系统软件，对其在第6次国际耦合模式比较计划（The 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project，CMIP6）不同的共享社会经济路径（Shared socioeconomic pathways，SSP）下，预测当前和2021-2040 年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年、2081-2100年时期空间分布格局的动态变化。最大熵模型评估ROC曲线结果显示，西部喙缘蝽的训练值和测试值分别为0.943和0.944，表明模型预测结果极好，可信度极高。在当前气候条件下，西部喙缘蝽在中国的潜在分布区总面积为1.95 × 106 km2，共计有21个省份或地区有其适生区；在未来气候条件下，西部喙缘蝽潜在分布区面积大多数时候比当前气候条件下的面积略小，且呈现先下降后上升再下降的波浪式趋势，在低强迫情景（SSP1-2.6）和高强迫情景下（SSP5-8.5）的变化趋势一致，均在2061-2080 年出现一个峰值。西部喙缘蝽危害大、扩散快，在中国具有较大的潜在分布面积，本研究可为该虫的入侵和扩散提出预警，并为虫害的管理和综合防治提供科学依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Leptoglossus occidentalis Heidemann is a pest that poses a threat to conifer forests worldwide. In China, it was first found in Weihai and Qingdao in 2021, and was a newly invasive species. This study was conducted to clarify its potential distribution in China and predict its spatial dynamics under future climate change. Utilizing 824 global occurrence records and 12 selected environmental variables, and based on the MaxEnt3.4.1 and ArcGIS10.5 software, we predicted its current (1950-2020) and future patterns (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2080-2100) distribution under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The MaxEnt model evaluation using ROC curves yielded training and test AUC values of 0.943 and 0.944, respectively, indicating excellent predictive performance and high reliability. Under current climatic conditions, the total potential distribution area of?L. occidentalis?in China spans 1.95 × 10? km2 across 21 provinces or regions. Future projections under climate change scenarios suggest a slight overall reduction in suitable habitat compared to current conditions, with a fluctuating trend of initial decline, followed by an increase and subsequent decrease. Both low-forcing (SSP1-2.6) and high-forcing (SSP5-8.5) scenarios show consistent patterns, peaking during 2061-2080. L. occidentalis poses a serious threat due to its high damaging potential and rapid spread, with a wide potential distribution range in China. This study provides an early warning for its invasion and expansion, and offers a scientific basis for its management and integrated control. |
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