《环境昆虫学报》

马铃薯块茎蛾Phthorimaea operculella是世界性重要害虫，也是重要的检疫性害虫之一。本研究基于马铃薯块茎蛾当前在中国分布点和环境变量因子，利用MaxEnt模型预测当前及未来两种气候背景下马铃薯块茎蛾在中国的潜在适生范围及程度。结果表明：马铃薯块茎蛾当前在我国的总适生区面积约363.6 × 104 km2，占全国陆地面积的37.9%；高适生区主要集中在西南和中原地区。影响马铃薯块茎蛾潜在分布的主要环境变量因子为最冷月份最低温、最冷季降水量、温度季节变动和最热月份最高温度。未来气候情景下，马铃薯块茎蛾潜在适生区面积呈缓慢扩大趋势，主要特征是南方沿海各省部分高、低适生区转变为中适生区，低适生区继续向北扩张。通过对未来气候变暖条件下的马铃薯块茎蛾适生区及适生程度进行科学预测，以期为马铃薯块茎蛾防控提供理论指导。

英文摘要:

Phthorimaea operculella Zeller (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is an important pest worldwide and one of the major quarantine pests. Based on the current distribution points and environmental variables of P. operculella in China, this study used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the potential range and extent of P. operculella in China under current and future climate scenarios. The results showed that the total suitable area for P. operculella in China was approximately 363.6 km2, accounting for 37.9% of the national land area. The high-suitability areas were mainly concentrated in the southwest and central plains. The key environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of P. operculella were the minimum temperature in the coldest month, the precipitation in the coldest season, seasonal temperature variation, and the maximum temperature in the hottest month. Under future climate scenarios, the potential suitable areas of P. operculella expand gradually, with the characteristics of some high- suitability and low-suitability areas transforming to medium- suitability areas in southern coastal provinces, and low-suitability areas expanding northward continuedly. This study provides theoretical guidance for the prevention and control of P. operculella by scientifically predicting its suitable regions and extents under future climate warming conditions.

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