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| 基于优化MaxEnt模型的新疆黑蜂生境适宜性评价 |
| Habitat suitability evaluation of black bees in Xinjiang based on optimized MaxEnt model |
| 投稿时间：2023-12-29 修订日期：2024-09-10 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 黑蜂 MaxEnt模型 适生区预测 生态因子 |
| 英文关键词:Black bee MaxEnt model Suitable area prediction Ecological factor |
| 基金项目:伊犁师范大学引进博士科研启动基金（2018005） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 20 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 气候是影响生物物种分布的重要因素，了解气候变化情景下物种分布及其变化趋势对于物种多样性保护并制定保护计划具有重要意义。新疆黑蜂是分布于新疆地区的地方性经济蜂种，目前面临种群数量减少、分布面积萎缩等问题，亟需评估气候变化对新疆黑蜂分布的影响。本文使用MaxEnt模型预测了不同时间、不同气候情景下新疆黑蜂潜在分布区。结果表明：1.MaxEnt模型的模拟精度AUC值为0.994，总体模拟水平达到“优秀”以上，表明本研究模型模拟精度高、性能好、模拟结果认可度高。2.影响新疆黑蜂的主要生态因子及其范围是：年平均温度介于1.56~4.95℃、最干旱季度平均温度介于-13.49~-11.01℃、最湿月降水量介于38.2~46.9 mm、最干旱月降水量介于5.51~6.88 mm。3.在SSP126较低辐射强迫的气候情境下，新疆黑蜂有较高适应能力，分布区有大面积扩张的趋势。在SSP585较高辐射强迫的气候情境下分布出现较大程度的收缩。新疆黑蜂的分布受主导环境因子温度的影响，温度的变化与人类生产活动、碳排放密切相关，所以人类生产活动通过影响气温对新疆黑蜂分布产生影响，在低强度碳排放下，分布区会扩张，高强度就会收缩。。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Climate is an important factor affecting species distribution. Understanding species distribution and its changing trend under climate change scenarios is of great significance for species diversity conservation and conservation planning. Apis mellifera ssp is an endemic economic bee species distributed in Xinjiang. It is urgent to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of Apis mellifera ssp，which is facing the problems of population reduction and shrinking distribution area. In this paper，the maximum entropy model MaxEnt was used to predict the potential distribution area of Apis mellifera ssp under different time and climate scenarios. The results showed as follows： 1. The simulation accuracy of MaxEnt model was 0.994 AUC，and the overall simulation level reached above "excellent"，indicating that the model in this study had high simulation accuracy，good performance and high recognition of simulation results. 2. The main ecological factors affecting Apis mellifera ssp and ranged from the average annual temperature of 1.56~4.95℃, the average temperature of the driest quarter of -13.49~-11.01℃, the precipitation of the wettest month of 38.2~ 46.9 mm, and the precipitation of the driest month of 5.51~6.88 mm.3. Under the climate situation of relatively low radiative forcing of SSP126，Apis mellifera ssp had high adaptability and showed a trend of large area expansion. The distribution of Apis mellifera ssp contracted to a large extent under the relatively high radiative forcing of SSP585. The distribution of Apis mellifera ssp was affected by temperature. The change of temperature is closely related to human production activities and carbon emissions. Therefore，human production activities affect the distribution of Apis mellifera ssp by influencing temperature. At low intensity carbon emissions，the distribution area will expand，while at high intensity carbon emissions，it will shrink. |
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