基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型的我国五种常见蝈螽全球适生区预测

曾籽言,  范明宇,  石福明,  周志军

曾籽言, 范明宇, 石福明, 等. 基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型的我国五种常见蝈螽全球适生区预测 [J]. 环境昆虫学报, 2026, 48(4): 1175-1182. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0858.2026.04.18
引用本文: 曾籽言, 范明宇, 石福明, 等. 基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型的我国五种常见蝈螽全球适生区预测 [J]. 环境昆虫学报, 2026, 48(4): 1175-1182. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0858.2026.04.18
ZENG Zi-Yan, FAN Ming-Yu, SHI Fu-Ming, et al. Global prediction of suitable habitats for five common Gampsocleis species in China based on the MaxEnt model [J]. Journal of Environmental Entomology, 2026, 48(4): 1175-1182. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0858.2026.04.18
Citation: ZENG Zi-Yan, FAN Ming-Yu, SHI Fu-Ming, et al. Global prediction of suitable habitats for five common Gampsocleis species in China based on the MaxEnt model [J]. Journal of Environmental Entomology, 2026, 48(4): 1175-1182. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0858.2026.04.18

基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型的我国五种常见蝈螽全球适生区预测

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0858.2026.04.18
基金项目: 

京津冀(雄安新区)生态安全与生态保护教育部工程研究中心开放课题 2024-12;

河北省自然科学基金 C2021201002

详细信息
    作者简介:

    曾籽言,女,硕士研究生,研究方向为昆虫分子系统进化,E-mail:zengziyan8877@foxmail.com

    通讯作者 Author for correspondence:

    周志军,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为昆虫分子系统进化,E-mail:zhijunzhou@hbu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: Q968.1

    文献标识码: A

    文章编号: 1674-0858(2026)04-1175-08

Global prediction of suitable habitats for five common Gampsocleis species in China based on the MaxEnt model

  • 摘要:
    目的 

    探明蝈螽属Gampsocleis Fieber,1852的潜在适生分布区对观赏性鸣虫资源保护具有重要意义。

    方法 

    本研究采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型结合全球分布记录与CMIP6气候数据,推断蝈螽属在共享社会经济路径(SSPs)气候情景(低排放SSP 1-2.6、中等排放SSP 2-4.5和高排放SSP 5-8.5)下的分布格局,并探讨了物种特异性响应特征。

    结果 

    目前蝈螽属昆虫潜在分布面积约占全球面积(Global land area,GLA)的14.90%,核心分布热点集中在亚洲东部、欧洲南部及北美洲中部三个主要区域。在低排放SSP 1-2.6情景下,东亚核心栖息地连通性最强,并向极地有序扩张;而高排放SSP 5-8.5则导致稳定地区显著缩减,且在北半球高纬度地区出现“伪扩张”模式。同时,蝈螽属不同物种响应存在明显差异,如中华蝈螽G. sinensis表现出较强的扩张能力,而乌苏里蝈螽G. ussuriensis对气候变化更为敏感。

    结论 

    本研究结果不仅为基于气候适应性制定保护规划提供了科学依据,也对加深理解昆虫群落对全球变化的响应机制提供了研究案例。

     

    Abstract:
    Aim 

    Elucidating the potential suitable distribution areas of the katydid genus Gampsocleis Fieber, 1852 (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) holds significant implications for the conservation and sustainable utilization of ornamental singing insect resources.

    Methods 

    This study utilized the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach, integrating global occurrence records with CMIP6 climate projections, to analyze the distribution patterns of the katydid genus Gampsocleis under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (Low emissions SSP 1-2.6, Intermediate emissions SSP 2-4.5, and High emissions SSP 5-8.5) scenarios, while investigating species-specific response characteristics.

    Results 

    The findings revealed that the katydid genus Gampsocleis currently occupies potential habitats covering approximately 14.90% of global land area (GLA), with core distributional hotspots concentrated in three major regions: East Asia, Southern Europe, and central North America. Under the low-emission scenario SSP 1-2.6, East Asian core populations maintained the strongest habitat connectivity with orderly poleward expansion, whereas the high-emission scenario SSP 5-8.5 induced significant stable habitat contraction and pseudo-expansion patterns in northern latitudes, characterized by non-viable temporary habitats. Concurrently, pronounced interspecific divergence was observed within Gampsocleis, with G. sinensis demonstrating robust range expansion capacity, while G. ussuriensis exhibited heightened sensitivity to climate forcing.

    Conclusion 

    This study provides a scientific basis for developing climate-adaptive conservation planning and serves as a representative case for understanding the response mechanisms of insect communities to global change.

     

  • 全球气候变化对生物多样性的影响已成为生态学研究的核心议题(IPCC,2023)。昆虫作为陆地生态系统中物种最丰富、功能最复杂的类群(Stork,2018;王明强等,2022),对气候变化的响应尤为敏感(孙玉诚等,2017;Eggleton,2020;Wagner et al., 2021)。温度升高、降水模式改变及极端气候事件(IPCC,2023),不仅直接影响昆虫的生理代谢、繁殖周期及栖息地质量(Altermatt,2010;陈瑜和马春森,2010;Overgaard et al., 2014;Roitberg and Mangel, 2016;Radchuk et al., 2019),还通过改变植被类型间接影响其食物资源与栖息环境(Schweiger et al., 2008;Thackeray et al., 2016)。已有研究表明,温度升高可能缩短昆虫的发育历期,但过高温度会抑制其存活与繁殖(马罡和马春森,2016;Sinclair et al., 2016;Chown et al., 2019;伍兴隆等,2024)。降水变率增加则可能导致生境破碎化,影响物种迁移能力以及通过脱水风险、宿主植物异步性等途径威胁昆虫生存(党志浩和陈法军,2011;Titley et al., 2017;Bonebrake et al., 2018;Lister and Garcia, 2018)。气候变暖通过改变温度、降水等关键环境因子,驱动昆虫向高纬度和高海拔区域迁移(McCain and Colwell, 2011;Mason et al., 2015),同时导致低纬度边缘生境退化(Soroye et al., 2020)。然而,不同昆虫类群对气候变化的响应存在显著异质性,其核心分布区的稳定性、边缘生境的收缩趋势及新生境的扩张潜力仍需深入探讨。

    蝈螽属Gampsocleis Fieber, 1852隶属于直翅目Orthoptera螽斯科Tettigoniidae,是一类具有重要生态和文化价值的昆虫。目前,全球已记录蝈螽属25(亚)种,其中12(亚)种分布于中国(Cigliano,2025)。作为东亚地区典型的观赏性鸣虫,其分布与气候、生境因子密切相关(Webster,1994;Fang et al., 2002;Chen et al., 2011)。东亚季风区是气候变化的敏感区域,其温度与降水的时空异质性显著影响昆虫分布(戈峰,2011;Wang et al.,2024)。IPCC(2023)预测未来温度持续升高和降水变率增大。但该属物种对不同气候排放路径的响应机制尚不清楚,高排放情景下物种分布的潜在风险亟待评估。

    生态位模型(Ecological Niche Models,ENMs)是研究物种分布与环境关系的重要工具(朱耿平等,2013;Schickele et al., 2020),其中最大熵模型(MaxEnt)在小样本和复杂变量分析中表现优异(邢丁亮和郝占庆,2011;朱耿平和乔慧捷,2016;Ramasamy et al., 2022;Wang et al., 2023;Adan et al., 2025),已成功应用于多种昆虫的分布预测和气候变化响应研究,例如半翅目盲蝽(祝梓杰等,2017)、鞘翅目白缘象甲(梁莉等,2022)以及直翅目黄脊竹蝗(温玄烨等,2021)等。然而,针对蝈螽属在未来气候情景下的分布变化趋势及其生态适应机制研究仍较少。

    本研究根据蝈螽属昆虫的世界分布数据,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测当前气候及未来SSP 1-2.6、SSP 2-4.5、SSP 5-8.5情景下的分布动态,明确气候变化对物种核心稳定区、收缩区及扩张区的影响,解析物种响应异质性的生态机制。研究结果将为昆虫的气候适应研究提供案例,也为东亚地区生物多样性保护提供科学支撑。

    本研究蝈螽属昆虫分布数据主要来源于两部分:(一)课题组野外实地调查采集数据;(二)整合自全球生物多样性信息网络平台(Global Biodiversity Information Facility, GBIF, < https://doi.org/10.15468//dl.kzhedc > )、中国国家标本资源共享平台(National Specimen Information Infrastructure, NSII)、教学标本资源共享平台(http://mnh.scu.edu.cn/)。经系统收集,共获取全球范围内共计4 921条分布数据,涵盖蝈螽属昆虫的12(亚)种。针对单物种潜在地理分布分析,选取了在中国境内分布的5种蝈螽属昆虫数据,具体为:秃毛蝈螽G. glabra 1 764条;优雅蝈螽G. gratiosa 102条;暗褐蝈螽G. sedakovii 751条;中华蝈螽G. sinensis 43条;乌苏里蝈螽G. ussuriensis 576条。

    利用Google Earth软件(https://www.google.cn/)确定各分布点经纬度坐标,将数据录入Excel中并保存为.csv格式。为确保数据质量,剔除鉴定错误,记录模糊及重复的分布数据。同时,为避免模型过度拟合,采用ENMTools 1.0.4软件对分布点数据进行空间过滤处理(Warren et al., 2010),删除重复项和缺乏详细坐标的数据(Kramer-Schadt et al., 2013;Warren et al., 2014)后,最终,全球范围内蝈螽属分布数据采用蝈螽属12(亚)种数据,保留1 688个有效分布点。单物种分析保留中国境内的5种蝈螽属昆虫的分布数据:秃毛蝈螽G. glabra 464条;优雅蝈螽G. gratiosa 77条;暗褐蝈螽G. sedakovii 580条;中华蝈螽G. sinensis 43条;乌苏里蝈螽G. ussuriensis 322条(图 1)。

    图  1  本研究所用的蝈螽属(A)及我国分布的5种常见蝈螽属昆虫(B)有效分布点数据
    注:该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2021)648号的标准地图制作,底图无修改。
    Fig.  1  Valid occurrence data points for the genus Gampsocleis (A) and five common Gampsocleis species in China (B) used in this study
    Note: This map was based on the standard map with the review number GS (2021) 648 downloaded from the standard map service website of the national bureau of surveying and mapping geographic information. The base map had not been modified.
    下载: 全尺寸图片

    由全球气候数据库(WorldClim, http://www.worldclim.org)下载空间分辨率为2.5 arc-minutes的19个环境变量(BIO 1~BIO 19)。其中,当前气候数据采用1970-2000年平均值;未来气候模拟数据分别为2050年(2041-2060年),2070年(2061-2080年)和2090年(2081-2100年)。基于CMIP6计划中中国国家气候中心BCC-CSM 2-MR气候模型,选择共享社会经济路径(SSPs)设定的3种未来气候情景,即SSP 1-2.6(低排放,可持续发展路径)、SSP 2-4.5(中等排放,中间发展路径)和SSP 5-8.5(高排放,不均衡发展路径)开展预测。利用ArcGIS 10.8.2软件提取分布点的环境变量相关数据,使用ENMTools(Warren et al., 2010)进行相关性分析并使用Origin软件绘制热图(详见网络版增强出版材料附图 1)。通过Pearson相关检验生物气候变量之间的多重共线性,保留相关系数为 > 0.80中对模型训练贡献较大的变量。最终筛选得到昼夜温差月均值(BIO 2)、昼夜温差与年温差比值(BIO 3)、温度变化方差(BIO 4)、最暖季度平均气温(BIO 10)、最冷季度平均气温(BIO 11)、最湿月份降水量(BIO 13)、最干月份降水量(BIO 14)和降水量季节性变动系数(BIO 15)等8个贡献率较高的环境变量用于后续模型构建。

    未经优化的MaxEnt模型易导致预测偏差,影响结果可转移性(朱耿平和乔慧捷,2016)。本研究使用R语言中的ENMeval包,核心参数特征组合(FC)和调节乘数(RM)进行优化。测试由线性(Linear,L)、二次项(Quadratic,Q)、铰链(Hinge,H)、乘积项(Product,P)和阈值(Threshold,T)组成的6个特征组合(L、LQ、H、LQH、LQHP和LQHPT)与5个调节乘数值(0.5、1、2、3和4)构建的30个候选模型。模型训练采用5 000次迭代、10 000个背景点、10次重复交叉验证构建,同时随机选择75%作为样本数据,其余25%用于测试数据,平均输出结果为最终结果。以Akaike信息准则(AIC)、AICc、训练与测试AUC之差(AUC. Diff)、10%的训练遗漏率(OR10)为指标,最终选择delta:AICc和OR10值最小的模型为最优模型。

    将MaxEnt运行结果导入ArcMap软件,计算蝈螽属昆虫在我国的生境适宜度指数(Habitat suitability index,HSI)(0~1,数值越大适生程度越高)。运用Jenks自然间断点分级法(natural breaks)将HSI划分为4个等级:非适生区(< 0.2)、低适生区(0.2~0.4)、中适生区(0.4~0.6)和高适生区(> 0.6)。统计当前及未来气候条件下各适宜性等级对应的面积,并在ArcGIS中分析其时空变化。

    采用接受者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评估MaxEnt模型预测精度(Swets,1988)。AUC值越接近1.0的值表示性能越好。基于气候变化对物种分布的影响,将网格单元划分为收缩区(当前存在、未来可能消亡)、扩张区(当前不存在、未来可能出现)和稳定区(当前与未来分布不变),利用ArcGIS可视化蝈螽属昆虫分布组成变化。对比当前与未来分布,明确其分布范围变化趋势。

    模型参数结果表明,RM值为2的LQH组合具有最低的delta:AICc值(详见网络版增强出版材料附图 2),因此被选为最终模型的参数设置。

    MaxEnt模型经ROC验证,所有蝈螽属物种模拟的AUC值均大于0.93,表明模型性能良好、精度高。

    蝈螽属昆虫当前潜在地理分布集中于亚洲东部,欧洲南部和北美洲中部(图 2)。空间分布上,各物种的高适生区(深蓝色)在东亚地区呈显著区域集中,构成核心高适生区域;欧洲、美洲、非洲及大洋洲等区域多为非适生区或低适生区。

    图  2  当前气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测
    注:A,蝈螽属;B,秃毛蝈螽;C,优雅蝈螽;D,乌苏里蝈螽;E,暗褐蝈螽;F,中华蝈螽。该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2021)648号标准地图制作,底图无修改。
    Fig.  2  Global prediction of suitable habitats for the genus Gampsocleis and five common Gampsocleis species in China under current climate conditions
    Note: A, Gampsocleis; B, G. glabra; C, G. gratiosa; D, G. ussuriensis; E, G. sedakovii; F, G. sinensis. This map was based on the standard map with the review number GS (2021) 648 downloaded from the standard map service website of the national bureau of surveying and mapping geographic information. The base map had not been modified.
    下载: 全尺寸图片

    量化分析与空间可视化(表 1)显示,蝈螽属物种存在生态位分化与地理分布异质性。所有物种的非适生区面积占比均绝对主导地位,如乌苏里蝈螽非适生区占比达99.20%,说明该属昆虫对生境高度选择性,生存繁衍严格依赖特定气候与微环境组合。

    表  1  当前气候变化情景下蝈螽属昆虫适生区面积(×104 km2)及占比变化
    Table  1  The area (×104 km2) and percentage of Gampsocleis suitable habitats under different climate change scenarios
    高适生区
    High-suitable habitats
    中适生区
    Middle-suitable habitats
    低适生区
    Low-suitable habitats
    非适生区
    Unsuitable habitats
    蝈螽属
    Gampsocleis
    面积(×104 km2) 132.06 707.35 1 394.22 12 693.41
    占比(%) 0.90 4.70 9.30 85.10
    乌苏里蝈螽
    G.ussuriensis
    面积(×104 km2) 3.55 27.63 84.70 14 811.18
    占比(%) 0.00 0.20 0.60 99.20
    中华蝈螽
    G. sinensis
    面积(×104 km2) 231.03 130.96 251.54 14 313.52
    占比(%) 1.50 0.90 1.70 95.90
    暗褐蝈螽
    G. sedakovii
    面积(×104 km2) 28.66 255.36 533.38 14 109.64
    占比(%) 0.20 1.70 3.60 94.50
    优雅蝈螽
    G. gratiosa
    面积(×104 km2) 61.45 60.06 149.46 14 656.07
    占比(%) 0.40 0.40 1.00 98.20
    秃毛蝈螽
    G. glabra
    面积(×104 km2) 65.16 239.14 438.00 14 184.75
    占比(%) 0.40 1.60 2.90 95.10
    注:“占比”是指在当前气候变化情景下各种适宜区域占总面积的比例。Note:"Percentage" refers to the proportion of various suitable habitats to China's land area under current and future climate.

    物种特异性方面,中华蝈螽的高适生区面积(231.03 × 104 km2)显著大于其他物种,结合其在东亚连续分布特征,表明该物种生态幅宽,能够适应多样生境;乌苏里蝈螽的高适生区面积仅为3.55 × 104 km2,对应极狭域分布格局,反映该物种对温湿度、植被类型等生境因耐受性阈值严格。秃毛蝈螽与暗褐蝈螽低、中适生区面积上分别为677.14 × 104 km2与788.74 × 104 km2,二者差异体现了物种间因生态位分化产生的资源竞争与适应性。

    与当前气候情景相比,在SSP 1-2.6、SSP 2-4.5、SSP 5-8.5三种未来气候情景中(2041-2060年、2061-2080年和2081-2100年),蝈螽属昆虫总适生区面积呈现增加趋势(详见网络版增强出版材料附图 3~附图 5)。不同气候情景下,蝈螽属的分布格局表现出明显的空间异质性。

    在SSP 1-2.6气候情景,东亚地区作为核心稳定区(米色),在未来气候条件下仍保持较高的生境适宜性。低纬度和低海拔边缘生境则出现收缩现象,而高纬度地区(如俄罗斯远东)和高海拔区域表现出明显的扩张趋势。不同物种对气候变化的响应存在差异,中华蝈螽表现出更强的扩张能力,而乌苏里蝈螽的收缩区比例较高。不同排放情景的比较显示,气候变化的强度显著影响蝈螽属的分布格局。随着排放强度的增加(从SSP 1-2.6到SSP 5-8.5),东亚核心稳定区的连片性逐渐降低,在SSP 5-8.5情景下甚至出现断裂现象。收缩区的面积随排放强度增加而扩大,特别是在低纬度地区和原有核心分布区外围。高纬度扩张区在低排放情景下呈现稳定增长,但在高排放情景下,由于极端气候事件的影响,其长期适生性存在较大不确定性。

    综合来看,未来气候变化将导致蝈螽属适生区向高纬度地区扩张,但不同排放情景的影响程度存在显著差异。低排放情景有利于维持现有核心适生区的稳定性,而高排放情景将导致适生区的大幅缩减。

    本研究通过MaxEnt模型预测了蝈螽属昆虫在当前和未来气候条件下的潜在分布格局。结果表明,东亚地区作为蝈螽属的核心分布区,在未来气候变化下仍将保持较高的生境适宜性。模型预测的高适生区与实际分布点的高度吻合,验证了MaxEnt模型在昆虫分布预测中的可靠性(Phillips et al., 2006;Early et al.,2018)。不同气候情景下的预测结果显示,蝈螽属的适生区呈现向高纬度扩张的趋势,这与全球变暖背景下物种分布范围普遍北移的规律相符(Parmesan and Yohe, 2003;Chen et al.,2011)。值得注意的是,低排放情景(SSP 1-2.6)下适生区的扩张更为有序,而高排放情景(SSP 5-8.5)则导致核心分布区的显著缩减。这一差异表明,气候变化强度直接影响蝈螽属的分布格局,支持了IPCC(2023)关于减排措施对生物多样性保护重要性的结论。

    物种间的响应差异是本研究的另一个重要发现。中华蝈螽表现出更强的扩张能力,而乌苏里蝈螽则对气候变化更为敏感。这种差异可能与其生态位宽度有关(Slatyer et al., 2013),提示在制定保护策略时需要采取物种特异性的方法。高海拔地区新适生区的出现,印证了物种通过垂直迁移应对气候变化的假说(Lenoir et al., 2008),但地形因素导致的适生区碎片化可能限制其实际扩散能力。

    本研究存在一定的局限性。首先,模型未考虑种间互作和扩散限制等生物因素对分布的影响(Wisz et al., 2013)。其次,微生境异质性可能使实际分布与预测结果存在偏差(Franklin et al.,2013)。未来研究应结合野外调查和种群动态监测,以验证和优化模型预测。尽管如此,本研究结果为理解蝈螽属对气候变化的响应提供了重要依据,对制定针对性的保护策略具有指导意义。

    附录:附图 1  环境变量相关性分析

    附图 2  用于优化最大熵(MaxEnt)模型的不同特征类和正则化乘数组合的delta. AICc值

    附图 3  低排放SSP 1-2.6  气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测

    附图 4  中等排放SSP 2-4.5  气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测

    附图 5  高排放SSP 5-8.5气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测

    详细数据见网络版增强出版材料附表(http://hjkcxb.alljournals.net/)

    附图 1  环境变量相关性分析
    注:红色,正相关;蓝色,负相关。颜色越深相关性越高。
    Appendix Fig. 1  Correlation Analysis of Environmental variables
    Note: Red, Positive correlation; Blue, Negative correlation. The deeper the color, the higher the correlation.
    下载: 全尺寸图片
    附图 2  用于优化最大熵(MaxEnt)模型的不同特征类和正则化乘数组合的delta. AICc值
    注:H,铰链;L,线性;Q,二次项;P,乘积;T,阈值项。
    Appendix Fig. 2  delta. AICc values for different feature class and regularization multi­plier combinations used to optimize MaxEnt model
    Note: H, Hinge; L, Linear; Q, Quadratic; P, Product; T, Threshold.
    下载: 全尺寸图片
    附图 3  低排放SSP 1-2.6气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测
    Appendix Fig. 3  Global prediction of suitable habitats for the genus Gampsocleis and five common Gampsocleis species in China under the low emissions SSP 1-2.6 climate scenario
    下载: 全尺寸图片
    附图 4  中等排放SSP 2-4.5气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测
    Appendix Fig. 4  Global prediction of suitable habitats for the genus Gampsocleis and five common Gampsocleis species in China under the intermediate emissions SSP 2-4.5 climate scenario
    下载: 全尺寸图片
    附图 5  高排放SSP 5-8.5气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测
    Appendix Fig. 5  Global prediction of suitable habitats for the genus Gampsocleis and five common Gampsocleis species in China under the high emissions SSP 5-8.5 climate scenario
    下载: 全尺寸图片
  • 图  1   本研究所用的蝈螽属(A)及我国分布的5种常见蝈螽属昆虫(B)有效分布点数据

    注:该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2021)648号的标准地图制作,底图无修改。

    Fig.  1   Valid occurrence data points for the genus Gampsocleis (A) and five common Gampsocleis species in China (B) used in this study

    Note: This map was based on the standard map with the review number GS (2021) 648 downloaded from the standard map service website of the national bureau of surveying and mapping geographic information. The base map had not been modified.

    下载: 全尺寸图片

    图  2   当前气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测

    注:A,蝈螽属;B,秃毛蝈螽;C,优雅蝈螽;D,乌苏里蝈螽;E,暗褐蝈螽;F,中华蝈螽。该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2021)648号标准地图制作,底图无修改。

    Fig.  2   Global prediction of suitable habitats for the genus Gampsocleis and five common Gampsocleis species in China under current climate conditions

    Note: A, Gampsocleis; B, G. glabra; C, G. gratiosa; D, G. ussuriensis; E, G. sedakovii; F, G. sinensis. This map was based on the standard map with the review number GS (2021) 648 downloaded from the standard map service website of the national bureau of surveying and mapping geographic information. The base map had not been modified.

    下载: 全尺寸图片

    附图 1   环境变量相关性分析

    注:红色,正相关;蓝色,负相关。颜色越深相关性越高。

    Appendix Fig. 1   Correlation Analysis of Environmental variables

    Note: Red, Positive correlation; Blue, Negative correlation. The deeper the color, the higher the correlation.

    下载: 全尺寸图片

    附图 2   用于优化最大熵(MaxEnt)模型的不同特征类和正则化乘数组合的delta. AICc值

    注:H,铰链;L,线性;Q,二次项;P,乘积;T,阈值项。

    Appendix Fig. 2   delta. AICc values for different feature class and regularization multi­plier combinations used to optimize MaxEnt model

    Note: H, Hinge; L, Linear; Q, Quadratic; P, Product; T, Threshold.

    下载: 全尺寸图片

    附图 3   低排放SSP 1-2.6气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测

    Appendix Fig. 3   Global prediction of suitable habitats for the genus Gampsocleis and five common Gampsocleis species in China under the low emissions SSP 1-2.6 climate scenario

    下载: 全尺寸图片

    附图 4   中等排放SSP 2-4.5气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测

    Appendix Fig. 4   Global prediction of suitable habitats for the genus Gampsocleis and five common Gampsocleis species in China under the intermediate emissions SSP 2-4.5 climate scenario

    下载: 全尺寸图片

    附图 5   高排放SSP 5-8.5气候情景下蝈螽属及我国5种常见蝈螽全球潜在适生区预测

    Appendix Fig. 5   Global prediction of suitable habitats for the genus Gampsocleis and five common Gampsocleis species in China under the high emissions SSP 5-8.5 climate scenario

    下载: 全尺寸图片

    表  1   当前气候变化情景下蝈螽属昆虫适生区面积(×104 km2)及占比变化

    Table  1   The area (×104 km2) and percentage of Gampsocleis suitable habitats under different climate change scenarios

    高适生区
    High-suitable habitats
    中适生区
    Middle-suitable habitats
    低适生区
    Low-suitable habitats
    非适生区
    Unsuitable habitats
    蝈螽属
    Gampsocleis
    面积(×104 km2) 132.06 707.35 1 394.22 12 693.41
    占比(%) 0.90 4.70 9.30 85.10
    乌苏里蝈螽
    G.ussuriensis
    面积(×104 km2) 3.55 27.63 84.70 14 811.18
    占比(%) 0.00 0.20 0.60 99.20
    中华蝈螽
    G. sinensis
    面积(×104 km2) 231.03 130.96 251.54 14 313.52
    占比(%) 1.50 0.90 1.70 95.90
    暗褐蝈螽
    G. sedakovii
    面积(×104 km2) 28.66 255.36 533.38 14 109.64
    占比(%) 0.20 1.70 3.60 94.50
    优雅蝈螽
    G. gratiosa
    面积(×104 km2) 61.45 60.06 149.46 14 656.07
    占比(%) 0.40 0.40 1.00 98.20
    秃毛蝈螽
    G. glabra
    面积(×104 km2) 65.16 239.14 438.00 14 184.75
    占比(%) 0.40 1.60 2.90 95.10
    注:“占比”是指在当前气候变化情景下各种适宜区域占总面积的比例。Note:"Percentage" refers to the proportion of various suitable habitats to China's land area under current and future climate.
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2024-09-19
  • 修回日期:  2025-06-18
  • 接受日期:  2025-06-19

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